Downstream: The Next Shocks Will Hit Wealthy Countries Hardest. Here’s Why w/ John Rapley

Aurora tells the story of a starship launched in 2545, carrying two thousand of Earth's best and brightest to the Tau Ceti system, a journey that spans over 150 years. The narrative is uniquely told from the perspective of the ship itself, which has developed an intelligent and self-aware AI. The story follows Freya, the daughter of the ship's Chief Engineer, Devi, and explores the lives of the people aboard the ship as it approaches its destination. The novel delves into themes of survival, purpose, and the challenges posed by generations of humans living in space, including the failure of the colonization effort and the subsequent conflicts among the ship's inhabitants.

Why Empires Fall offers a comparative analysis of the Roman Empire's decline and the potential challenges facing the modern West. The authors, a historian and a political economist, draw parallels between the internal and external pressures that contributed to Rome's fall and those affecting Western societies today. The book examines economic shifts, political instability, and the changing dynamics of power between core and periphery regions. It challenges conventional narratives about Rome's decline and proposes a new understanding of imperial collapse. Ultimately, the book serves as a cautionary tale and a call for critical reflection on the future of the West.

The book describes the 100 years following 1870 as the 'Special Century,' a period of revolutionary growth and prosperity driven by innovations such as electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television. Gordon argues that this era of growth has been flatlining since 1970, marked by growing inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and rising debt. He contends that the productivity growth of the past cannot be repeated and identifies several 'headwinds' that will continue to slow American economic growth. The book is divided into two main parts, covering the period from 1870 to 1940 and from 1940 to 2010, and includes detailed statistical analysis and historical anecdotes to support its arguments.