The State of Rental Housing in the United States - Jay Parsons - Rental Housing Economist

Aug 19, 2025

Jay Parsons, a respected rental housing economist with years of industry experience, shares insights on the evolving rental market. He discusses his career path post-financial crisis and the unique dynamics of apartments versus single-family rentals. The conversation covers migration trends favoring the Sunbelt regions, the shift towards long-term investment strategies, and the impact of technology in enhancing the leasing experience. Parsons emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply and demand metrics for informed decision-making in this competitive landscape.

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ADVICE

Avoid Short-Term, Highly Levered Flips

Avoid relying on short-term flip strategies with high leverage in a higher-rate cycle.
Favor longer-horizon, quality-focused plays and institutional value-add in strong submarkets.

INSIGHT

Design Shifts Toward Flexibility And Outdoors

Amenity design is shifting to flexible common spaces and outdoor living rather than fixed novelty features.
Build-to-rent and single-family options cater to families wanting space and small yards.

INSIGHT

Sunbelt Migration Normalized, Not Reversed

Migration into Sunbelt and mountain metros continues but has normalized since the COVID surge.
Growth remains strongest there while some Midwest metros show renewed steadiness.

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In this episode of The Distribution, host Brandon Sedloff sits down with rental housing economist Jay Parsons for a wide-ranging discussion on the state of the rental housing market. Jay shares his path into the industry during the aftermath of the financial crisis, explains why he chose to specialize deeply in rental housing, and outlines the unique dynamics shaping apartments, single-family rentals, and build-to-rent communities today. Together, they explore current market challenges, long-term tailwinds, and the opportunities that lie ahead for investors and operators alike.

They discuss:

* The origins of Jay’s career and his focus on rental housing economics

* Key differences between ownership-driven housing commentary and true rental housing analysis

* Glass half full versus half empty perspectives on today’s market, from high supply and rates to affordability and demographics

* The convergence of multifamily, single-family rentals, and build-to-rent under one rental housing umbrella

* Migration and demographic trends driving demand across the Sunbelt, mountain metros, and emerging tertiary markets

* Investor strategies shifting from short-term flips to long-term value creation and operational excellence

* How technology and AI are reshaping leasing, resident experience, and customer service in rental housing

* The most important data points to track over the next cycle: supply and demand

This episode offers clear insights for investors, operators, and anyone looking to understand the forces shaping the future of rental housing.

Links:

Jay on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-parsons-a7a6656/

Jay's website - https://jayparsons.com/

Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/

Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/

Topics:

(00:00:00) - Intro
(00:02:02) - Jay’s background and career
(00:12:50) - What are the good things happening in rental housing right now?
(00:15:20) - Categories of rental housing that Jay covers
(00:18:46) - What should investors be focused on if they want to increase their allocations in apartments over the next 3-10 years?
(00:26:12) - Formats of new builds
(00:29:16) - Migration trends
(00:37:06) - Rental housing pipelines
(00:40:20) - Capitalization trends
(00:42:42) - Multifamily fundamentals over a cycle
(00:45:04) - Drivers of the BTF and SFR market
(00:48:06) - Creating alpha in a multifamily portfolio
(00:51:41) - What to look for in a great operator
(00:53:06) - Technology and AI application trends
(00:56:19) - What is one data point everyone should be paying attention to?