Raoul Pal: The Journey Man The Next Perfect Trade (And Why It Only Happens Once a Decade)
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Jan 29, 2026 
Alex Gurevich, hedge fund manager and founder/CIO of HonTe Investments with a math and JP Morgan background, discusses the book The Next Perfect Trade and why some trades only arrive once a decade. He revisits past risk-parity insights, crisis trade setups like long bonds plus dollars, and how AI, deflation, liquidity and a capex boom reshape macro frameworks and trade ideas.
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Paired Assets Create 'Perfect' Trades
- Risk parity lets you combine assets so one position cushions the other and improves risk-adjusted returns.
- Alex Gurevich calls 2002 and 2014 'perfect trade' setups where paired assets both had high odds to win.
Set Clear Trade Parameters Upfront
- Set clear, upfront parameters for every trade: time horizon, target, and stop-loss.
- Use those rules to avoid misleading success metrics and preserve capital discipline.
The Long Silver Target Story
- Alex recounts holding silver for years with a $60 target and being surprised when it ran beyond expectations.
- He uses the story to show both discipline benefits and the frustration of taking profits too early.
