DarrenDaily On-Demand Why Experts Are Wrong 73% of the Time
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Feb 9, 2026 A look at how information overload boosts confidence without improving accuracy. A classic study shows experts get more certain but not more correct. Fields from medicine to markets illustrate the delusion. Practical tips include embracing less, setting limits, and trusting instincts to avoid paralysis.
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Classic Study On Information And Confidence
- Stuart Oskamp ran a study giving psychiatric experts progressively more information about a patient to answer a 25-question test.
- Accuracy stayed ~the same across summary, several pages, ten pages, and the full file while confidence rose dramatically.
Confidence Rises Without Accuracy
- More information increased experts' confidence from ~33% to over 90% while accuracy remained flat.
- This creates a dangerous delusion of expertise that can mislead decision-making.
Real-World Examples Of The Delusion
- Darren Hardy lists real-world domains where more data doesn't guarantee better decisions: stock analysis, medicine, sports, politics, hiring, and weather.
- These fields often still suffer mispredictions despite vast information and tools.