Learning Bayesian Statistics #16 Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way, with Will Kurt
May 21, 2020
Will Kurt, lead Data Scientist at Hopper, shares insights on Bayesian statistics, his journey from a Boston librarian to a data scientist, and the value of Bayesian inference. He discusses the mind projection fallacy, logistic regression, upcoming plans, and promoting critical thinking in society.
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COVID's Impact on Hopper
- Hopper experienced a surge in sales followed by uncertainty during the COVID crisis.
- This highlighted the challenge of building models in a rapidly changing world.
Statistics in an Unstable World
- Traditional statistical models often assume a stable world, which can be problematic during times of crisis.
- The COVID pandemic underscores the need for models that can adapt to change.
Mind Projection Fallacy
- The mind projection fallacy highlights our tendency to confuse properties of our minds with properties of the world.
- Randomness and uncertainty in models reflect our incomplete knowledge, not inherent randomness in the world.