Daniel Davis Deep Dive Air Power NOT ENOUGH in IRAN /Larry Johnson
Mar 4, 2026
Larry Johnson, national security analyst specializing in missile defense and military strategy. He breaks down Patriot and THAAD production limits and interceptor depletion risks. They discuss why airpower alone cannot topple Iran, Iran’s underground missile infrastructure and decoys, and the logistical and political pitfalls of attempts at regime change.
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Depletion Will Let Iran Strike Freely
- Depletion of Western air-defense interceptors will enable Iran to strike freely over time.
- Johnson warns once interceptors and radars are gone, Iran can hit any target and sustain attacks beyond U.S. defensive capacity.
Strikes Are Stand Off, Not Full Air Dominance
- Israeli strikes appear to use standoff launches rather than sustained air dominance over Iran.
- Johnson notes Tehran is ~270 miles from Saudi border, implying many strikes are launched from stand-off distances using JASSMs/JDAMs rather than deep overflights.
Terrain Favors Defensive Resilience
- Rugged terrain and dispersal make ground conquest and control extremely difficult.
- Johnson compares Iran's mountains to Afghanistan's, notes underground missile networks and miles of tunnels that protect launchers and manufacture.