HousingWire Daily What to make of the negative labor data
Feb 6, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst known for data-driven housing and labor market commentary. He walks through recent weak labor signals and their immediate effect on yields and mortgage pricing. He debates whether markets overreact and explains how the Fed sees labor softness versus jobless claims. He also covers housing-sector job losses and the outlook for rate volatility.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Labor Data Is Driving Yields
- Multiple weak labor reports drove the 10-year yield lower despite GDP growth and inflation remaining above target.
- The market is treating labor data as the dominant driver of bond yields and mortgage-rate moves.
Soft Labor Market, Not A Break
- The labor market is softer but not yet breaking, keeping the Fed cautious about cutting rates quickly.
- Fed officials view current policy as moving slowly toward neutral because inflation remains above target.
Housing Weakness Has Limited Fed Influence
- Housing has weakened (residential construction jobs down) but the Fed doesn't prioritize housing when setting policy.
- The Fed will stay restrictive until labor shows clearer deterioration even if housing lags.