December Jobs Report: Will the US economy remain in a “low-hire, low-fire” mode?

10 snips

Jan 9, 2026

Mike Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, offers crisp macro analysis in this conversation. He dissects a weak payroll print with a falling unemployment rate. He links GDP growth to hours and productivity. He weighs early signs of AI-driven productivity, debates the Fed's likely pause, and outlines fiscal and inflation forces shaping 2026.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Labor Market: Low-Hire, Lower Unemployment

The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, easing worries about rising labor-market slack.
Job growth remained modest at 50,000, reinforcing a

INSIGHT

Weak Jobs, Strong GDP: Productivity Bridge

The economy shows a disconnect: soft job gains but strong GDP driven by productivity.
Mike Feroli suggests recent quarters may reflect rising productivity, possibly from AI, but data remain inconclusive.

INSIGHT

Fed Likely To Pause To Build Consensus

December's data increase the chance the Fed pauses in January to build committee unity.
Strong GDP and stable unemployment make it harder for the Fed to claim policy is restrictive.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Non-farm payrolls increased by just 50,000 in December while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%, reinforcing the “low-hire, low-fire” theme of the past few months. Does this point to a Fed pause at the January meeting? And how are consumers holding up against this backdrop? Join chief U.S. economist Mike Feroli and Alexa Hanelin from the North America Rate Sales team as they discuss the latest numbers.

This episode was recorded on January 9, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.

This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.