The Economics Show How will falling fertility rates hurt the economy? With Melissa Kearney
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May 1, 2026 
Melissa Kearney, economist and director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, studies demographics and public policy. She discusses why low fertility is likely persistent. She outlines consequences for workforce size, public finances and local services. She weighs whether technology, policy or cultural shifts could offset demographic headwinds.
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Aging Population Threatens Growth And Innovation
- Declining fertility plus longer lives shifts population shares toward older ages, raising fiscal pressure on entitlements and reducing workforce size.
- Kearney warns this can lower innovation, economic dynamism, and future living-standard growth without policy response.
Public Spending Favors The Elderly Over Children
- Federal spending is heavily tilted toward the elderly, with per-capita transfers much larger for those over 65 than for children.
- Kearney argues this creates a generational mismatch that reduces investment in the next generation's human capital.
More Babies Won't Solve Short Term Fiscal Debt
- Raising fertility would not fix near-term fiscal pressures because newborns don't contribute tax revenue for ~20 years.
- Kearney emphasizes that immediate entitlement-driven debt trajectories persist even if births rose now.