Know Your Risk Podcast The Oil Story Investors Need to Watch
Mar 17, 2026
A deep dive into current oil market dynamics, from supply shocks and transit bottlenecks to why prices may be mispriced. Geopolitical flashpoints and military risks that could disrupt tanker and pipeline flows are examined. Broader spillovers into chips, fertilizer and food supply chains are highlighted. Options, hedging costs and market positioning round out the discussion.
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Oil Is Underpricing The Looming Physical Shortage
- Oil prices are priced below where supply dynamics suggest they should be given Strait disruptions and other hits to capacity.
- Chase Taylor argues physical shortages haven't fully manifested yet and an air pocket from inventories will push prices substantially higher.
Strait Disruption Creates A Bullwhip Supply Shock
- The Strait disruption creates a cascading bullwhip effect across supply chains where releases from inventories only mask an underlying shortfall.
- Chase describes tankers, reserves and pipeline throughput limits (e.g., East-West ~4.5mbd) keeping tight physical balances.
Military Moves Could Remove Millions Of Barrels Instantly
- Military action risks removing millions of barrels a day from the market quickly, and retaliation could amplify that loss.
- Chase notes a U.S. strike on Card Island could strip away 1–2mbd and prompt counterstrikes on other assets.