Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Lawrence Wilkerson: U.S. Strategic Defeat in Iran Will Reshape the World
Mar 18, 2026
Lawrence Wilkerson, retired U.S. Army Colonel and former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of State, reflects on how a U.S. setback in Iran could redraw global power. He discusses why a ground invasion is impractical and how China’s rare earths and Eurasian trade routes reshape strategy. He examines military limits, regional realignments, nuclear risks, and narrow diplomatic exit paths.
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Van Riper Wargames Predicted U.S. Failures
- Wilkerson recounts Van Riper's wargames where U.S. forces 'lost' to Iranian tactics twice twenty years ago.
- He uses this to show Iranian capabilities have only improved since those defeats.
U.S. High-Tech Advantage Has Eroded
- U.S. high-tech platforms underperform in sustained conflict due to maintenance, supply and lost radar capability from China-dependent rare earth supply chains.
- Wilkerson notes F-35 maintenance hours and inability to replace expensive radars because of China's control of rare earths.
Bombing Civilians Strengthens Enemy Resolve
- Strategic bombing of civilians fuses and radicalizes adversaries rather than breaking will, increasing long-term resistance.
- Wilkerson compares current bombing to Netanyahu's Lebanon campaign and cites a four-star's testimony that it strengthens enemy cohesion.