The Fourcast Middle East oil crisis: What is America's real 'endgame' in Iran?
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Mar 9, 2026 Bernard Haykel, Near Eastern Studies professor advising on Gulf politics; Guy Laron, historian of oil and author of Oil Wars. They discuss Saudi neutrality and Gulf fears of Iranian revisionism. They explore why oil infrastructure has largely been spared and whether the US aims to control Iran’s energy chokepoints. They weigh risks to the Strait of Hormuz and how rising prices shape strategic choices.
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Avoiding Oil Targets Signals A Bigger Strategy
- Guy Laron argues the U.S. and Israel purposely avoided hitting Iranian oil sites because controlling energy is the strategic endgame.
- He suggests the U.S. aims to seize leverage over Iran's exports via control of Kharg Island and oil arrangements with compliant officials.
Oil Control As A Geopolitical Counter To China
- Guy Laron frames oil control as U.S. leverage against China ahead of a Trump–Xi summit.
- He says controlling Persian Gulf exports would be a strategic counter to Chinese dominance in rare earths and global energy dependence.
Iran Is Not Venezuela And Won't Capitulate
- Bernard Haykel doubts Trump has a deep geopolitical plan and warns Iran differs sharply from Venezuela.
- He stresses Iran's ideological resilience and that regime change risks long-term regional chaos and instability.