The Briefing Room Iran - how vulnerable is the regime?
Feb 12, 2026
Dr Sanam Vakil, Middle East programme director at Chatham House, offers geopolitical and regime-resilience analysis. Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Middle East security expert at RUSI, focuses on Iran’s security forces and regional fallout. Arash Azizi, Yale writer and lecturer, compares current politics to past protests. Kasra Naji, BBC Persian correspondent, provides on-the-ground reporting of protests and repression. They discuss protest origins, state crackdown, succession risks, and US-Iran dynamics.
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Youth And Poor Areas Drove Protests
- BBC Persian found protesters were mostly late teens to about 40, concentrated in poorer areas and included both men and women.
- Youth and economic marginalization were major drivers rather than a narrowly elite movement.
Brutal, Multi-Force Repression
- The regime used a mix of security forces and lethal methods, including IRGC, police, army, sharpshooters and heavy weapons on pickups.
- After Khamenei ordered a clampdown the casualty numbers rose dramatically, with thousands reportedly killed.
Not A 1979-Style Revolution—Yet
- Arash Azizi and Sanam Vakil agree these protests are the most insurrectionary since 2009 but not yet like 1979.
- Missing elements include a unifying leader and signs of elite or military fragmentation needed for full revolution.