Risky Bulletin Srsly Risky Biz: Successful war leaves Iran with one option, its cyber forces
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Mar 19, 2026 Tom Uren, policy and intelligence editor focused on cyber and platform safety. He explains how a successful war could push Iran to pivot heavily into cyber power. They discuss how Iran might rapidly scale cyber capabilities. They also cover Meta reversing E2EE on Instagram DMs and when encryption helps or harms safety.
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Cyber Becomes Iran's Last Resilient Weapon
- Iran's cyber capability is the most resilient tool left if its conventional forces are destroyed.
- Tom Uren argues cyber survives bombing, needs little hardware, and can be rapidly grown with political will and talent programs like North Korea's.
Single Cyberattacks Rarely Drive Policy Change
- Individual high-profile cyber incidents often don't shift top-level policymaker attention unless they affect many companies.
- Uren explains Stryker's outage was significant to the company but wouldn't move national leaders unless impacts scaled to hundreds or thousands.
Talent Hothouses Can Rapidly Scale Cyber Programs
- Cyber programs can be rapidly improved through talent identification and concentrated development.
- Tom Uren cites North Korea's decade-long hothouse approach as a model Iran could emulate to scale its offensive cyber forces quickly.