Open source intelligence cowboys ‘monitoring’ Iran

As the world watches for updates in the war on Iran, cutting through the fog of war and getting a real sense of the extent of damage and military activity in the region isn’t easy. For some, the answer is open source intelligence: pouring over satellite images, flight radars, news updates, social media posts, and just about any kind of data someone can get their hands on.

And while OSINT investigations have worked their way into common practice for newsrooms all over the world, it’s also increasingly popular among amateurs or “OSINT cowboys” with sophisticated AI-coded dashboards streaming constant real life info so that they can monitor the situation as closely as possible and even place bets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. But how accurate are these OSINT reports? And what happens when watching for war updates becomes gamified?

Tyler McBrien, the managing editor at Lawfare, joins us to talk about the piece he wrote on this topic for The Baffler.

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