The Rest Is Politics: US 146. Trump vs Iran: Will He Strike?
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Jan 12, 2026 
This conversation features Rick Wilson, a sharp political consultant and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, known for his incisive critique of GOP politics. He dives into Trump's 'Donroe Doctrine,' highlighting risks in Latin America, and argues that military threats against Iran could strengthen the regime. Wilson critiques Stephen Miller's influence on ICE, paints a bleak picture for Cuba, and discusses the divisive role of conservative media in fostering fear within the MAGA base. His call for truth and reconciliation aims to restore democratic norms.
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Iran’s Upheaval Is Homegrown And Fragile
- The current Iranian protests present a real revolutionary moment with big regional consequences.
- Wilson warns bombing Iran would play into the regime's narrative and undercut indigenous revolutionary momentum.
A Free Iran Would Rattle Beijing
- A successful Iranian uprising would worry Chinese and other authoritarian hardliners about contagion.
- Wilson suggests regime collapse in Iran could make China more cautious about domestic repression and outward ambition.
Cuba Collapse And A Mariel-Scale Exodus
- Wilson predicts a Cuban collapse and a massive refugee wave to South Florida resembling a far larger Mariel boat lift.
- He says anything that will float will leave Cuba and the influx will overwhelm U.S. systems.