The Lawfare Podcast How States Think
Sep 22, 2023
Political scientists John Mearsheimer and Sebastian Rosato discuss their new book, debunking the idea that states act irrationally in foreign policy. They explore the perception of states as rational actors, the differences between models and theories, the challenges of applying political psychology to real-world scenarios, and the rationality of NATO expansion. They also examine the mistake of assuming irrationality in adversaries, highlighting the dangers of this mindset in foreign policy decision-making.
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Rationality vs. Success
- Rationality is a process, not a guarantee of success.
- Even with sound theories and deliberation, states can fail due to limited theories, information problems, or unforeseen circumstances.
Factors Influencing Rationality
- Rationality involves credible theories, information deficits, and deliberation.
- These factors can lead to multiple rational decision outcomes in any given situation.
Theory vs. Data
- Rationality is theory-driven, while expected utility maximization is data-driven.
- This theory contrasts with the data-focused approach of expected utility maximization.