Raoul Pal: The Journey Man Why the Nasdaq Could Surge Again
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Feb 24, 2026 
Andreas Steno, macro strategist known for deep-cycle and liquidity analysis, joins to unpack macro, capex and AI-driven market dynamics. They explore why current capex looks different from past bubbles. They discuss AI adoption pacing, semiconductor and EM winners, a possible Goldilocks setup for the Nasdaq, and a barbell view of tech plus cyclical capex.
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Blue Chips Are Two Years Behind On AI
- Many blue‑chip companies restrict employee AI use to offline Copilot versions, delaying real implementation.
- An M&A executive said offline Copilot is “useless” because it only searches local disks and still hallucinates.
We're Early In The AI S‑Curve
- If ChatGPT/Netscape are both year‑zero moments, we are still only in the early innings of adoption and likely several years from peak.
- That implies a multi‑year S‑curve remaining for LLM capability and deployment.
Rapid LLM Gains Create Volatile Dispersion
- LLM capabilities roughly double every four to five months, making extrapolations highly unreliable and causing sector‑by‑sector shock selling.
- This rapid improvement creates rolling drawdowns across many stocks without an index crash.