The Exchange Dotcom Do-Over?, Nadella Takes the Stand, and The Sleeper in Semis 5/11/26
May 11, 2026
Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, a tech and semiconductor investor. He likens today’s tech rally to 1999 and predicts at least another strong year. He breaks down agentic AI driving massive compute demand. He flags a sleeper chip company and discusses valuation risks versus fundamentals.
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Agentic AI Is Powering Another Multiyear Tech Run
- Dan Niles compares the AI rally to the 1990s internet run, saying the first three years mirror each other but expects at least one more strong year ahead.
- He cites OpenAI’s agentic shift after OpenClaw on Jan 30 as a token-growth step change driving 10–100x more compute demand.
Valuations Are Different This Time And Winners May Shift
- Niles notes current valuations differ from 2000; NVIDIA trades in the 20s PE vs Cisco at 150x in 2000, making today less extreme.
- He warns agentic AI could shift compute from GPUs toward CPUs, benefiting AMD/Intel.
Hold Cash To Improve Risk Adjusted Returns
- Dan Niles recommends holding significant cash now to target good risk-adjusted returns and have dry powder for buying corrections.
- He points to rising oil and bond yields versus record stocks as a signal one of those markets is mispriced, justifying caution.