Defense & Aerospace Report Podcast [Mar 22 ’26 Business Report]
Mar 22, 2026
Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst with AeroDynamic Advisory, Sash Tusa, London-based equity researcher, and Dr. Ron Epstein, Bank of America senior analyst, discuss soaring oil and jet-fuel prices, stranded and parked aircraft, and whether higher energy costs end the recent airline boom. They examine Strait of Hormuz risks, supply-chain chokepoints, and defense budget pressures amid wartime supplemental requests.
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Energy Spike And Rates Drove Market Divergence
- Markets sold off as defense outperformed commercial aerospace, with Boeing down ~9% while Elbit and Booz Allen outperformed.
- Jet fuel spiked to $217/barrel and 10-year yields rose to ~4.4%, pressuring long-duration aerospace names and airline margins.
Gulf Carrier Demand Could Cause Engine Scrappage
- Gulf carriers face acute demand loss; airlines may ground and scrap older aircraft and engines if disruption continues.
- Airbus says deliveries continue today but warns a six-month disruption would force significant groundings and engine scrappage.
Plane Shortage Blunts Typical Fuel-Driven Fleet Renewal
- High fuel normally prompts airlines to replace thirsty older jets with newer efficient types, but current supply shortages prevent that substitution.
- Because new aircraft are unavailable, fuel spikes may not reduce capacity quickly, protecting OEM demand.
