Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 30: The Market Is Wrong About Rates. With David Rosenberg
17 snips
Mar 23, 2026 
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and noted macro economist, offers a contrarian read on markets. He digs into why rates and bonds may be mispriced. He discusses geopolitical whipsaws, limited safe havens, and why short-dated government bonds are his high-conviction play. He also touches on inflation shocks, energy risk, and a cautious take on hard assets.
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Short Covering Drove The Risk-On Move
- Market reacted to President Trump's tweet as a short-covering relief rally rather than durable de-escalation of the Iran conflict.
- David Rosenberg points to mixed signals, Iranian denials, and technical market breaks as reasons to doubt sustainability.
Buy Short-Term Government Bonds Now
- Buy the front end of sovereign yield curves (two-year notes) in the U.S. and Canada to bet against further rate hikes.
- Rosenberg expects central banks to cut later, not hike, and estimates ~6% returns on this trade over 12 months.
Supply Shocks Can Trigger Broad Demand Destruction
- Food and energy price spikes are relative shocks that will hit staples but depress demand elsewhere, creating disinflation across many sectors.
- Rosenberg compares short-run CPI jumps to 2008's oil spike that preceded broader deflation in other categories.
