
LSE: Public lectures and events The geopolitical implications of the Israel-US-Iran war
Mar 17, 2026
Peter Dubovitz, LSE professor on international security, maps global ripple effects. Sanam Bakil, Chatham House MENA director, explains Iran's survival strategy and off-ramps. Toby Dodge, LSE scholar of post-colonial state dynamics, unpacks regional state behavior and military campaigns. They discuss regional security complexes, weaponizing interdependence, shifting alliances, and how the conflict reshapes global geopolitics.
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Airpower Without Political Strategy
- U.S. and Israeli airpower is overwhelmingly dominant while political strategy from Washington is unclear and shifting.
- Toby Dodge notes 13,000 strikes in two weeks and argues military superiority lacks a coherent political endgame leading to regional instability.
Weakened Iran and Empowered Israel
- The war will likely leave Iran militarily weakened but not defeated, creating an empowered Israel aligned with the U.S. and the UAE.
- Toby Dodge predicts Israel gains strategic hegemony while Iran's deterrence mosaic has failed after sustained leadership losses.
Survival Through Horizontal Escalation
- Iran's objective is regime survival, so it adopts horizontal escalation to spread costs beyond its borders.
- Sanam Bakil compares Iran's approach to North Vietnam, using maritime attacks and drone strikes to pressure global markets and allies.





