The Business Trumponomics: who wins and who loses?
Jan 22, 2026
In this insightful discussion, Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, Jack Barnett from The Times, and Richard Fletcher, Business Editor, delve into the whirlwind of Trumponomics. They analyze the fallout from Trump's Davos appearance and the implications of his proposed tariffs, estimating potential hits to the UK economy. The trio also discusses the uncertain investor reactions to rapid policy changes, the risks to the Federal Reserve's independence, and how sectors like defense and tech could emerge as winners amid geopolitical shifts.
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Uncertainty, Not Size, Was The Damage
- The Greenland tariff threat was walked back but highlighted the cost of uncertainty for businesses.
- Strong EU, UK and Canadian pushback likely helped avert a broader tariff escalation.
Europe’s Leverage Changed Calculus
- EU retaliation capacity and credible escalation options made tariffs a risky move for the US.
- Visible, forceful European responses changed the political calculus compared with earlier threats.
Defence Spending Shifts Investment
- Increased defence spending in Europe and the UK is likely as alliances fray, shifting resources away from other priorities.
- Dual-use tech and cyber capability investments may outperform pure defence buys.