Daniel Davis Deep Dive Ukraine, Russia & Trump /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Feb 6, 2026
A brisk look at the tangled Ukraine-Russia conflict, from battlefield realities to diplomatic theater. Discussion of India’s energy choices and the political pressure around Russian oil. Examination of rising nuclear risks as New START lapses and the case for broader arms control. Commentary on how Western rhetoric and strategic moves shape the chances for negotiation.
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Negotiations Fail Without Shared Reality
- U.S. efforts at trilateral negotiated settlements with Russia and Ukraine are largely pointless without shared facts and battlefield realities.
- Daniel Davis argues negotiations fail when parties refuse to agree on basic realities and objectives.
India Won't Easily Abandon Cheap Russian Oil
- Trump claimed India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, but Moscow denied it and Modi stayed noncommittal.
- Davis highlights the economic implausibility for India to switch from cheaper Russian oil to pricier U.S./Venezuelan supplies.
Oil Leverage Helps U.S. Industry, Not War Outcome
- U.S. pressure to reroute Indian purchases toward U.S. or Venezuelan oil serves American economic interests more than directly affecting the Russia–Ukraine war.
- Davis contends oil reallocation will complicate Russia's sales but won't decisively change the war's trajectory.