Rebel Capitalist News Serious Cracks Are Showing Up In The Housing Market
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Feb 12, 2026 Troubling drops in existing home sales and odd survey effects spark the discussion. Rising numbers of underwater mortgages and low turnover raise price vulnerability. Concerns about tappable equity drying up and risks from low down-payment loans are explored. A sharp sell-off in office and commercial real estate stocks, with AI as an unexpected catalyst, rounds out the focus.
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Big Monthly Drop In Existing Home Sales
- Existing home sales plunged 8.4% in January, the biggest monthly drop since Feb 2022, and this miss can't be fully explained by weather.
- George Gammon argues expectations already accounted for storms and points to weakening demand and confidence as deeper causes.
Rate Narrative Doesn't Fit Recent Data
- Falling mortgage rates over the past year (from ~6.87% to ~6.09%) should have supported demand, so Gammon questions the narrative that rates alone caused the sales drop.
- He highlights that media lean on 'high rates' as a convenient narrative despite substantial recent rate declines.
Confidence And Jobs Are Key Demand Drivers
- Low consumer confidence and a sputtering labor market are suppressing housing demand despite improving affordability.
- Gammon points out downward revisions to jobs paint a weaker employment picture that reduces buyer willingness to enter the market.