America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show Real Estate & Economic Outlook with Ryan Severino
Jan 21, 2026
In this discussion, Ryan Severino, Chief Economist at BGO, shares insights on the current state of the economy and commercial real estate. He highlights the labor market's surprising strength amid recent job slowdowns and discusses how real estate often lags economic trends. Ryan delves into the impact of tariffs on manufacturing, the evolving housing market, and how AI is reshaping productivity. He also offers an optimistic view on office spaces adapting post-pandemic and the resilience of the retail sector amidst ongoing changes.
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Episode notes
Personal Note On Low Mortgage Rates
- Ryan admits he's personally benefited from historically low mortgage rates and used that as context.
- He notes some markets that overbuilt during migration shifts are now seeing price corrections.
Prepare For Gradual Fed Easing
- Expect the Fed to continue easing but slowly, likely one or two 25bp cuts.
- Plan for rates nearer to a nominal neutral (~3%) rather than zero for real estate returns.
AI Spending Propelled Recent Growth
- AI investment and data center build-out materially boosted capital expenditures and helped growth.
- That tech spending likely prevented much weaker growth last year and continues to support the economy.