The Globalist

Is a diplomatic off-ramp to the war in Iran appearing?

Mar 25, 2026
Gabriel Lee, Monocle transport correspondent, gives an aviation roundup on airspace closures, GPS jamming and airline shifts. John Everard, former ambassador to Belarus and North Korea, explains Lukashenko’s Pyongyang trip and regional diplomacy. Hannah Lucinda-Smith, former Istanbul correspondent, unpacks Middle East diplomacy, mediation efforts and how regional players shape a possible diplomatic off-ramp.
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INSIGHT

Leader Safety Concerns Limit Who Can Negotiate

  • Top-level Iranian figures are security targets, complicating whether they will attend face-to-face talks.
  • Benoit warns Iran may refuse to send leaders like the parliament speaker who are considered on a hit list.
INSIGHT

Negotiations Are Shaped By Performance Politics

  • Both the US and Iran perform a diplomatic dance to appear strong rather than openly seek peace.
  • Hannah explains domestic politics and desire to claim victory make concessions politically costly for both sides.
ANECDOTE

Lukashenko Visit Followed US Rapprochement To Minsk

  • John Everard connects Lukashenko's Pyongyang visit to a rapid US outreach to Minsk and prisoner releases.
  • He notes the timing suggests possible geopolitical signalling or reciprocal diplomacy between Washington and Minsk.
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