This Is Why Why are people betting on war?
Mar 25, 2026
Sam Doak, a Sky News data and forensics investigator specialising in open-source intelligence, betting markets and conflict reporting. He explains how crypto prediction markets work and why people trade on wars and political violence. He explores anonymity, possible insider information, pressure on journalists, and the ethical and legal concerns around monetising real-world conflict.
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How Polymarket Prices Work
- Polymarket operates as a prediction market where yes/no markets are priced between $0 and $1 to reflect perceived probability.
- Users propose markets and trade against each other, so prices move like probabilistic forecasts rather than bookmaker odds.
Anyone Can Create Extreme Markets
- Any user can propose markets on almost any future event, from sports to geopolitical strikes and deaths.
- That openness created niche markets like specific towns in Ukraine or dates for strikes on Iran that traditional bookmakers would refuse.
Huge Bet Before Maduro Capture
- A very large anonymous bet predicted the capture of Nicolás Maduro, paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars.
- The bettor's identity and information source remained unknown, raising suspicion of non-public intel driving the wager.