UnHerd with Freddie Sayers Was closing the Strait of Hormuz part of Trump’s plan?
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Mar 19, 2026 
Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge who studies energy markets and geopolitics, examines whether US strategy weaponised Gulf disruptions. She discusses how a Strait of Hormuz closure reshapes energy flows and harms China. She explores alternate routes, insurance and convoy impacts, Europe’s growing US energy dependence, and a possible new Suez-style realignment of global power.
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US Strategy May Weaponise Gulf Energy
- The Trump administration may be pursuing a strategic plan to weaponise energy markets against China, not just to defeat Iran militarily.
- Helen Thompson argues closing the Strait of Hormuz could be an intentional play to change transit geopolitics and hurt China's energy access.
Insurance Pullback, Not Just Iranian Firepower
- The immediate trigger for the stoppage of tanker transit was insurers withdrawing coverage after US strikes raised perceived risk.
- Thompson highlights that insurance refusals, not solely Iranian actions, created the effective closure of the Strait.
China Is The Biggest Loser From Gulf Disruption
- Asia, especially China, is the principal loser from disrupted Gulf transit because it imports most Gulf hydrocarbons.
- China relied heavily on Iranian exports post-2018 sanctions, making it particularly vulnerable to sustained disruption.