The Loonie Hour The Ontario Real Estate Bailout Has Begun- w/ guest Ben Rabidoux
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Mar 27, 2026 Ben Rabidoux, independent Canadian housing and credit researcher, explains regional divergence in housing and why Southern Ontario has plunged. He covers rental slowdowns from condo completions, a looming mortgage renewal pain, hidden bank exposures from blanket appraisals, and the risk of government bailouts and policy moves to prop up new-build developers.
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Five Year House Price Change Turned Negative
- Five-year real price change is now negative nationally for the first time since the 1990s.
- Ben noted many borrowers renewing today may owe more than their homes are worth versus five years ago, limiting refinancing options.
Renewal Pain Is Concentrated Not Average
- Mortgage payment shock is uneven: average payment increases ~8%, but one in four borrowers face >20% payment rises.
- Ben warned that cohort will move consumer spending and increase delinquencies despite benign averages.
Subprime Lender Blowups Signal Broader Risk
- Consumer credit weakness is a slow burn but subprime blow-ups can accelerate contagion.
- Ben flagged Go Easy's jump from 7–8% to 12%+ charge-offs as an early warning that risky lenders are deteriorating abruptly.