HousingWire Daily How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
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Feb 23, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst and mortgage market expert, breaks down how the Supreme Court tariff ruling could influence mortgage rates. He contrasts opposing views on tariffs and explains why labor market and Fed policy matter more. Short takes on what would be needed for rates to slip below 5.75% and practical advice on timing purchases.
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Logan’s Once In A Lifetime Plane Drama
- Logan Mohtashami shared recent travel drama where a plane had to divert and an airport tire issue required emergency vehicles.
- He used the story to open the segment and lighten the conversation before diving into policy analysis.
Supreme Court Ruling Lowers Tariff Uncertainty
- The Supreme Court ruling that blocked unilateral 'Godzilla' tariffs removes a major one-off policy shock that had been factored into Fed thinking.
- Logan Mohtashami notes this could make the Fed slightly more dovish because tariffs won't be used unilaterally, but the bond market barely reacted on the day of the ruling.
Labor Market And Fed Policy Drive Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates are driven primarily by the labor market and Fed policy rather than tariff headlines.
- Mohtashami argues that without a labor market break or a dovish Fed, tariffs alone won't meaningfully lower mortgage rates below his 5.75% line.