Reuters Morning Bid Oil down, expectations up
Mar 25, 2026
They discuss oil slipping below $100 after Iran signaled easier passage through the Strait of Hormuz. They cover reports of a 15-point plan from the U.S. and how markets are grasping for a turning point. They compare futures optimism with real-world shipping and insurance risks. They review business surveys showing falling confidence and economic strain.
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Markets Trade On Ceasefire Optimism
- Oil traders are pricing hope for a ceasefire after Iran said it would allow some non-combatant ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Mike Dolan notes Brent fell below $100 as markets seized on Tehran's UN statement despite on-the-ground uncertainties about shipping and insurance.
Paper Markets Diverge From Physical Shipping Reality
- Paper markets are more optimistic than physical oil markets where firms must decide whether to send ships and pay insurance amid ambiguous rules.
- Anna Schmansky warns that Tehran's statement may not translate into immediate resumed flows because companies face real risk decisions.
Ceasefire Reports Won't Remove Core Risks
- Even reports of a 1-month ceasefire wouldn't eliminate risk because direct hostilities between Iran and Israel continue and US troop movements add ambiguity.
- Mike Dolan emphasises missiles still fly and US actions in the Gulf are unexplained, keeping downside limits on oil moves.