The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - March 4, 2026
Mar 4, 2026
A market rebound with broad index gains amid Iran-linked volatility and renewed tariff chatter. Discussion of Section 122 moving tariffs toward 15% and what that means for smaller and mid-sized businesses. Focus on oil and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and rising bond yields tied to energy and inflation. Strong services data and a take that AI-driven software selloffs may offer selective buying opportunities.
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Volatility Without Directional Breakdown
- Markets rebounded with broad gains despite headline volatility tied to Iran and tariffs.
- Futures swung ±100 intraday, but equities closed back near pre-crisis levels showing volatility without strong directional change.
Prepare For Moderated Tariff Increase
- Expect tariffs under Section 122 to raise current levies from 10% to 15% rather than restore pre-IEPA levels.
- That change implies roughly $65–$70 billion less in importer taxes versus IEPA, easing pressure on small and mid-sized firms.
Yields Rising Signals Inflation Not Panic
- Bond yields rose rather than fell amid Iran tensions, signaling higher energy-driven inflation expectations, not a flight to safety.
- The 10-year sits near 4.07%, 20 bps below a month ago but up ~10 bps from recent lows, so watch rapid changes.