RiskReversal Pod How To Trade Volatile Markets with Dan Greenhaus
Mar 27, 2026
Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management and seasoned market strategist. He talks about trading amid Middle East tensions, rising oil and yields, and why geopolitics is hard to trade. He covers consumer resilience, inflation dynamics, tight credit spreads, AI-driven capex risks, private credit worries, and when it may be best to sit tight.
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Geopolitics Is Hard To Trade But Risk Is Underpriced
- Geopolitical risk can quickly reroute markets but is extremely hard to trade predictably.
- Dan Greenhaus notes troop movements, warships and past surprises (e.g., Russia-Ukraine) mean escalation risk is underpriced now.
Higher Oil Hits Sentiment Not GDP
- US economy is less oil intensive so higher crude hurts sentiment more than GDP.
- Greenhaus explains one unit of oil now generates less GDP and consumer energy spending share is ~2%, lowering direct recession risk from oil spikes.
Expect A Higher Lasting Oil Plateau
- Don’t overreact to a temporary oil spike; assume a lasting geopolitical premium.
- He expects oil to fall back but to settle higher than pre-crisis due to damaged refineries and strategic stockpiling.