Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 5th, 2026
11 snips
May 5, 2026 
Robert Lewin, CFO at KKR, on strong Q1 results, private credit demand and asset-allocation moves. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, on how AI reshapes productivity, jobs and inflation dynamics. Jonathan Lieber, Managing Director at Eurasia Group, on Iran’s leverage, Strait of Hormuz tactics and regional geopolitical ripple effects.
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Ceasefire Fragility And June Deal Window
- The Iran‑US ceasefire seems fragile with both sides not yet at a pain threshold and negotiating positions stuck on nuclear concessions.
- Jonathan Lieber says Iran asserts control over the Strait and a deal likely won't arrive until June as leverage and economic effects accumulate.
Higher Oil Prices Cushion Iran's Budget Hit
- Economic pain from the blockade reduces Iranian oil exports ~70% but higher prices mean budget hits are only ~30–40% of pre‑war levels.
- Lieber argues budget strain alone won't force Tehran to concede; phased nuclear talks and higher global pain likely drive a deal.
Iran Conflict Unlikely To Upend US China Meeting
- US‑China summit plans are unlikely to hinge on an Iran deal because both powers prefer stability for trade and critical supplies.
- Lieber says China isn't a central interlocutor and the Iran conflict won't derail US‑China engagement in the near term.