The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz From Tehran to Taipei: How the Iran War Reshapes China’s Taiwan Calculus | feat. Matt Pottinger
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Mar 26, 2026 
Matt Pottinger, former U.S. deputy national security advisor and current China program chair at FDD, weighs in on Iran, China, and shifting great-power dynamics. He discusses China's cautious backchannels and energy vulnerabilities. He examines battlefield leverage around the Strait of Hormuz, lessons for Taiwan from asymmetric warfare, and how model partners like Israel and Ukraine shape future deterrence.
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Diplomacy Happens Concurrently With Combat
- Diplomacy Is Happening While Fighting Continues.
- Matt Pottinger says back-channel talks exist but battlefield outcomes, especially control of the Strait of Hormuz, will determine bargaining leverage.
China Fears Economic Pain From A Prolonged Gulf Crisis
- China Is Nervous About A Protracted Energy Shock.
- Pottinger notes Beijing's muted criticism of Iranian attacks stems from fear of economic pain to its export-driven economy and reliance on Gulf feedstock.
Cheap Asymmetric Weapons Can Stall A Superpower
- Asymmetric Weapons Can Hold Off A Superpower Temporarily.
- Pottinger highlights Iran's use of cheap drones, mines, and coastal missiles to bottle up shipping, a lesson relevant to Taiwan's coastal defense planning.