Yet Another Value Podcast April 2026 Random Ramblings
8 snips
Apr 16, 2026 A wide-ranging look at why recent SaaS selloffs may mask deeper valuation and dilution problems. He considers AI as both a threat to software terminal value and a reason to hedge with big-cap tech options. There is a discussion about pattern recognition in investing and when it helps or misleads. The episode ends with candid thoughts on the emotional cost of missing big opportunities.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Why Many SaaS Stocks Aren't Actually Cheap
- SaaS today is a high-risk category because stock-based compensation and rapid AI-driven substitution can wipe out economics.
- Andrew Walker argues many SaaS companies traded downwards have untenable stock-comp dilution and near-zero terminal value for software assets.
Hedge AI Risk With Small LEAPS In Big Tech
- Consider hedging AI risk by buying long-dated call LEAPS on major AI beneficiaries like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google.
- Walker suggests small portfolio allocations to LEAPS to capture a potential winner-take-most AI acceleration while limiting downside exposure.
LEAPS Look Attractive Because Volatility Seems Low
- LEAPS give leveraged upside with lower implied volatility than meme names, making long-dated options on large tech feel relatively cheap for a potential regime shift.
- Walker notes December 2028 LEAPS capture an 18–30 month acceleration window tied to corporate option compensation signals.