GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan

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Nov 5, 2025

Adam Rozencwajg, a seasoned natural resources and commodities investor, brings profound insights into the current economic landscape. He discusses the hidden fractures in monetary systems and the potential resurgence of inflation. The conversation explores the decline of US shale and Venezuela's untapped oil reserves. Adam highlights why commodities, particularly oil and metals, remain undervalued despite geopolitical pressures. Additionally, he unpacks the cyclical nature of markets and the looming risks of debt monetization.

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INSIGHT

Monetary Regime Shifts Trigger Commodity Bulls

Shifts in monetary systems often coincide with the end of commodity bear markets and the start of new commodity bulls.
Historical episodes (gold standard, Bretton Woods, Asian pegs) support this pattern.

INSIGHT

Inflation Is Formulaic Then Psychological

Inflation can be formulaic short-term and psychological long-term, especially if energy prices rise.
Dovish policy plus printed money raises the odds of a renewed inflationary bout.

ADVICE

Watch Negative Real Rates Closely

Monitor real interest rates because negative real rates encourage leveraged buying of real assets.
Expect politicized policy to keep real rates negative and thereby fuel asset-price spirals.

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Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles

08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes

13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets

20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system

27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation

34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk

41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”

49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply

55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles

01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets

01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world

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