Full Story Back to Back Barries: the Liberals’ looming election test
Feb 20, 2026
New polling in South Australia suggests a shocking collapse for the Liberals and a One Nation surge that could reshape federal politics. Discussion on whether protest polling will convert to real votes and where rural seats are most vulnerable. Debate over a new-look shadow frontbench and the political heat around returning IS families.
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Regional Seats Are One Nation's Target
- Labor's strong position in SA could be eroded if One Nation draws heavily from Liberal rural votes.
- Barrie Cassidy notes One Nation will be strongest in regional seats where Liberals remain.
One Nation Eats Both Major Parties
- One Nation's gains appear to come mainly from Liberals but can also nibble at Labor in places.
- Tony Barry says focus groups show frustrated voters aren’t strictly partisan in their drift.
SA Result Could Trigger National Reckoning
- A catastrophic Liberal result in SA would spark national debate about a centre-right vacuum.
- Barrie Cassidy warns it could force the party to reassess strategy before Victorian contests.