Truth Unites Did Cameron Bertuzzi Just Refute Me?
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Apr 28, 2026 A careful look at when silence in historical sources actually counts as evidence. Short principles for judging silence: expectation, sample size, and relevance. A school-search metaphor illustrates plausibility from absence. Case-by-case analysis of Paul, Ignatius, and claims about early Petrine authority. A warning against clipped clips that strip important context.
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Context Determines Strength Of Arguments From Silence
- Arguments from silence can be persuasive or weak depending on context and expectations about who would mention an event.
- Gavin Ortlund illustrates with a radio/school-shooting metaphor showing how sample size and expected witnesses change plausibility.
Driving To The School Metaphor For Silence
- Gavin tells a driving-to-school metaphor: fewer interviews at a large campus give weak reassurance while many interviews at a small school give strong reassurance.
- The metaphor concretely links number of expected witnesses to how much silence reduces plausibility.
Why 1 Corinthians 15 Is A Weak Test For Joseph Of Arimathea
- Not all silences are equally surprising; 1 Corinthians 15 is a compact creedal formula where mentioning Joseph of Arimathea would be unexpected and thus a weak argument from silence.
- Gavin notes the passage is ~30 Greek words, so absence of Joseph there doesn't count strongly against his historicity.