Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 4th, 2026
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Mar 4, 2026 Stephen Miran, U.S. Federal Reserve Governor focused on monetary policy and labor markets, and Jonathan Lieber, Eurasia Group research chief specializing in Middle East risk. They discuss oil-driven inflation risks and bond behavior. They examine Iran conflict timelines, drone cost dynamics, and ship-escort proposals. They also cover how labor trends and inflation expectations shape future rate decisions.
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Manage Middle East Risk With Scenario Hedging
- Geopolitical outcomes are wide-ranging so portfolios should be managed as scenarios rather than a single base case.
- Sebastien Page recommends geopolitical hedging: stay long equities including energy and add real asset and mining exposure to diversify inflation risk.
Oil Shocks Can Break The Stock-Bond Hedge
- Oil-driven inflation shocks can make bonds less reliable as a hedge because both stocks and bonds may fall with rising inflation.
- Page's analysis: peak oil effects arrive ~23 days after attacks and oil rallies on average ~27%, raising inflation swap levels.
Use Payrolls As One Mosaic Piece
- Treat nonfarm payrolls as one piece of a mosaic rather than a make-or-break datapoint for policy amid geopolitical noise.
- Page calls jobs moderately important and stresses growth and inflation still drive equity performance.