The Voices of War 126. Top 10 Conflicts That Could Explode in 2026 (And Why They’re Connected)
Jan 20, 2026
Richard Atwood, Executive Vice President at the International Crisis Group and host of the Hold Your Fire! podcast, shares his expertise on potential global conflicts in 2026. He dives into the implications of a U.S. raid in Venezuela and its effects on regional dynamics. The discussion also explores the tensions in Greenland influenced by Trump's foreign policy, the mixed signals from Washington regarding China and Taiwan, and the ongoing strife in Israel-Palestine, Syria, and the Gulf, emphasizing the interconnected nature of these conflicts.
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Decapitation, Not Regime Change
- The US raid on Maduro removed the leader but largely left the Chavista regime intact.
- That decapitation creates huge uncertainty over Venezuela's political and economic future.
Spheres Of Influence Framing Matters
- The raid was framed as hemisphere control and resource access rather than democracy promotion.
- That framing risks undermining international norms and driving regional hedging toward China and Russia.
Steer Transitions, Don’t Force Them
- Avoid rapid, heavy-handed regime change without army buy-in to prevent descent into violence.
- Manage transitions carefully to reduce risk of factional fighting and chaos.