The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing Why Bonds Are Back: PIMCO’s Marc Seidner on the Best Fixed Income Setup in Years | #629
32 snips
May 1, 2026 
Marc Seidner, PIMCO CIO of Non-traditional Strategies and Investment Committee member, offers fixed income and macro expertise. He explains why politics and geopolitics now steer markets. He makes the case for a golden age of bonds and flags stress in private credit. He also discusses the K-shaped recovery, value vs growth, real assets, and global bond opportunities.
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Avoid Cheap Risk In Economically Sensitive Credit
- Avoid economically sensitive credit where risk premia are low and default risk could rise as growth slows.
- Seidner warns investment grade is valuation-sensitive; high yield, bank loans and private credit show greater concern given weak spreads.
K Shaped Economy Is Hitting Lower Tiers Hardest
- The economy is K-shaped: large caps and wealthy households prosper while lower-income individuals and small businesses show stress.
- Seidner cites rising delinquencies among the bottom 40% and one-in-eight small firms in direct lending unable to pay cash interest.
Private Credit Echoes Pre GFC Excesses
- Private credit volumes and weakening underwriting mirror mid-2000s subprime patterns, creating stress and mark-to-market opacity.
- Seidner highlights BDCs trading 25–30% discounts to NAV and borrowers paying-in-kind, showing deteriorated protections.