Private Markets 360° Resilient Growth, Shifting Capital: Macro Signals for Private Markets in 2026 (With Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic & Investment Research at ICG)
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Mar 31, 2026 Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic and Investment Research at ICG, brings a concise macro view shaped by tracking company-level data. He discusses why 2025 proved resilient, drivers of U.S.-Europe divergence, the rise of hybrid capital and structured solutions, impacts of falling rates, and key themes and risks for private markets in 2026.
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Balance Sheet Focus Reveals Hidden Risks
- A balance sheet lens reveals systemic risk more clearly than short-term macro forecasts.
- Nicholas Brooks tracks ~500 private companies' EBITDA, margins and debt to spot inflation pass-through and corporate stress before headline data does.
Focus On Structural Risks Not Short Term Forecasts
- Prioritise structural/top-down risks and sectoral thematics over short-term one-year forecasting.
- Use company-level tracking and investment team dialogue to translate macro themes into portfolio-level actions.
Government Debt Is The Biggest Macro Vulnerability
- Strong household and corporate balance sheets helped resilience in 2025, reducing systemic crisis risk.
- Brooks warns government balance sheets, especially U.S. fiscal deficits and rising debt/GDP, are the principal medium-term vulnerability.