Wall Street Breakfast Khamenei killed, oil set to surge
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Mar 1, 2026 A major geopolitical shock in Iran and its likely impact on oil markets takes center stage. The conversation contrasts OPEC+ output plans with possible Middle East supply disruption. Movements in gold and regional equities are highlighted. The show previews February payrolls and flags a busy corporate earnings week and shifts at Berkshire Hathaway.
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Middle East Strike Spurs Near-Term Oil Rally
- Geopolitical escalation after Iran strikes will likely push oil prices higher in the near term.
- Polymarket shows a 93% chance crude rises Monday and 77% chance WTI tops $80 by month-end, up sharply from pre-weekend probabilities.
OPEC Plus Output Raise Won't Offset Risk
- OPEC+ is increasing output but the boost is small relative to potential Middle East disruptions.
- The group agreed to raise supply by 206,000 barrels per day in April, larger than a prior 137,000 bpd boost yet modest versus geopolitical risk.
Markets Moved Quickly Toward Gold And Regional Losses
- Risk assets reflected the weekend shock with regional equity drops and safe-haven gold buying.
- Saudi stocks fell 2.2% while gold-backed tokens implied a 1–2% gold opening, and Egypt's index fell 2.5%.