BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Home Prices Could “Stall” for Years | October 2025 Housing Market Update
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Oct 24, 2025 Home prices may stall for years, even in once-hot markets. Inventory is rising while demand weakens, creating unique opportunities for savvy investors. A shocking statistic reveals the true state of inflation-adjusted home prices, proving they aren't as rosy as they seem. Rent growth predictions are tempered by a cooling labor market and consumer constraints. Dave highlights how current real price trends can guide investment strategies, encouraging long-term holds and targeted purchases.
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Real Prices Have Been Flat For Years
- Real home prices are about 3% below their peak from 2022 and have been roughly flat for ~38 months.
- That flatness masks nominal increases that didn't outpace inflation.
Much Nominal Growth Is Inflation
- Inflation explains much of the nominal gains; real inflation-adjusted home prices are only about 10% above 2006 peak levels.
- Long-term average real appreciation is modest, roughly 1–1.5% above inflation historically.
Stalled Real Prices Could Continue
- Real home prices may continue to stall even if nominal prices inch up because inflation could run hotter.
- Dave expects possible modest nominal declines and negative real returns over the next year.