Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 3rd, 2025
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Oct 3, 2025 Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC, shares insights on the US economy, revealing how a government shutdown complicates data accuracy and impacts Fed decisions. She highlights sector-specific indicators for understanding a uniquely structured labor market. Jeffrey Rosenberg from BlackRock discusses the bond market's volatility and the importance of alternative data points like wage scrapes when official figures are unreliable. Together, they navigate the complexities of economic trends and the implications of fiscal uncertainties.
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Fiscal Politics Overtake Monetary Policy
- The economy is becoming less sensitive to monetary policy and more driven by fiscal politics.
- Frances Donald sees acrimonious Washington shifting the business-cycle driver from the Fed to fiscal spending and deficits.
Shutdown Could Inch Unemployment Up
- Permanent layoffs from the shutdown would be small but could noticeably lift the unemployment rate temporarily.
- Donald calls the macro outcome 'stagflation light' with slower job creation and re-accelerating inflation into year-end.
Tesla Delivery Beat Had A Pull-Forward
- Dan Ives estimates about 30% of Tesla's delivery beat was pulled forward, while demand is stabilizing.
- He frames autonomous and AI as the 'main event' beyond near-term delivery signals.