Defense & Aerospace Report Defense & Aerospace Daily Podcast [Mar 16, 2026] Look Ahead w/ Byron Callan
Mar 16, 2026
Byron Callan, founder of Capital Alpha Partners and Washington defense analyst, breaks down the US‑Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks. He discusses misinformation around strikes, drone and missile pacing, lessons from 1980s tanker wars, requirements for modern escort operations, limits on a ground campaign, and the uncertain US defense spending outlook.
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Tanker Wars Showed Convoys Were Small And Risky
- 1980s tanker war used re-flagged Kuwaiti tankers and small escorted convoys, not large WWII-style flotillas.
- Callan references the book Tanker Wars and a first convoy where a supertanker hit a mine to illustrate limited scale and risk.
Today's Threats Demand Cordon And Overhead Strike Options
- Modern Iranian threats are qualitatively different: long-range missiles, massed drones, and mining broaden attack options beyond 1980s threats.
- Callan argues escorts alone won't suffice; cordons with overhead surveillance and strike options are needed.
Plan For Weeks Not Days When Reopening The Strait
- Prepare for multiweek operations because transit times and ship repositioning mean reopening the strait won't be immediate.
- Callan emphasizes 16–18 day sail times from Asia and likely sustained operations into late March or April without breakthroughs.