Know Your Risk Podcast Josh Young of Bison Interests on the Oil Market
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Mar 5, 2026 Josh Young, founder of Bison Interests and oil-focused investor, brings sharp market and geopolitical experience. He discusses oil pricing on the margin, Strait of Hormuz risks, how short supply shocks create sticky, outsized price moves, and where convex investment opportunities like U.S. land rigs may appear. He outlines scenarios for prolonged flow curtailment and implications for energy and commodity markets.
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Why Josh Started Bison Interests In 2015
- Josh launched Bison Interests in 2015 because he found oil ETFs held low-quality names and allocators favored passive strategies.
- He funded the start himself, endured pushback, and has since outperformed major energy indexes significantly.
Geopolitical Instability Has Repeatedly Collapsed Oil Output
- Middle East instability historically collapses oil production during major conflicts.
- Josh lists Iranian Revolution, Iraq invasion, Syrian and Libyan civil wars as examples where production fell sharply, implying large right-tail supply risk.
Marginal Barrels Set Oil Prices
- Oil prices are set on the margin so small shortfalls sharply move the price.
- Zach and Josh explain marginal barrels determine market price and even a small restricted flow causes large price jumps.