FICC Focus All Options Considered: Iran War, Hormuz and Market Tails
Apr 1, 2026
Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Chokepoints, offers geopolitical analysis on Iran and energy security. He discusses control of the Strait of Hormuz and why reopening it is now a priority. He outlines how the conflict could shift markets from inflation fears to a growth shock and weighs the chances of military escalation and oil surging above $100.
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Control Of Hormuz Is The New Strategic Objective
- The overriding objective has shifted to reopening the Strait of Hormuz because whoever controls it can control global oil flows.
- Edward Fishman notes Iran is acting as a toll master, extracting de facto control after targeting leadership and key infrastructure.
Early Targeting Showed Shifting War Aims
- The war aims have vacillated from regime change to limited objectives like destroying nuclear capabilities and military degradation.
- Fishman cites early Israeli targeting of Ayatollah Khomeini and prior strikes like Operation Midnight Hammer as examples.
From Inflation Spike To Structural Energy Shock
- Markets initially treated the conflict as an inflation shock driven by higher oil prices, not yet a growth shock that pushes equities and yields down.
- Tanvir Sandhu and Edward Fishman point to actual flow disruptions of at least 10 million barrels a day and damage to LNG infrastructure as signs this could become structural.
